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New office space supply in Moscow in 2016 will decrease to levels last seen in 2012

Moscow, 20 April, 2016 – According to JLL, only four high quality office projects with the total area of 63,000 sq m were commissioned during Q1 2016. This marked a record low level of new supply over the past decade. For the full year, new supply is expected to reach 660,000 sq m, which will be 8% lower YoY and will mark a record low level over the last four years.

“In fact, the actual completions in 2016 may undershoot even more due to the challenging economic environment. The latter forces many developers to adjust their construction plans by putting on hold some projects at the early stage of construction and postponing planned projects.” – Alexander Churikov, Head of Office & Industrial Research, JLL, Russia & CIS, commented. – All completed buildings were Class B+, with largest “Nagatino i-Land (Phase II) – Descartes” (28,000 sq m – office space) the largest. Among notable upcoming projects for this year, there are Federation Tower - East in Moscow City, new office premises in Bolshevik business centre on Leningradsky Avenue and new buildings in G10 business park. The share of Class A offices new office space this year is expected at 26% vs 45% in 2015.”

On the demand side, office take-up in Moscow in Q1 was 267,000 sq m, which was 24% higher YoY. “Such a result is attributed mainly to one large transaction – a purchase of Evolution Tower (office area 79,053 sq m). Excluding this deal, the amount of office take-up in Q1 2016 was 12% lower than a year ago,” – Elizaveta Golysheva, Head of Office Agency, JLL, Russia & CIS, said. – “Nevertheless, occupier activity remains high; most of tenants consider the current situation as an opportunity to renegotiate existing lease terms or to relocate to more affordable premises of a better quality. The amount of transacted office space this year is expected to be close to the 2015 volumes (around 1m sq m).”

The main source of demand for new office space were oil & gas sector, which accounted for 75% of all transactions and manufacturing companies with a 10% share. Russian companies prevailed, with 87% of deals).

At the end of March, the overall vacancy rate in Moscow remained roughly unchanged compared to Q4 2015, at 15.8% versus 16%. The vacancy rate in Class A declined marginally to 22.4% from 22.8%.

Asking rents did not change QoQ. For premium offices, rents were in the range of 600-800 USD/sq m/year while Class A asking rents were in the range of 400–600 USD/sq m/year. In Moscow-City, Class A rents were in the range of 360-600 USD/sq m/year. As a result of a high exchange rate volatility, the rental market in Class B became almost fully rouble-denominated. By the end of the year, Class B+ asking rents amounted to 14,000–22,000 RUB/sq m/year.