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The balance of demand and supply to be achieved in 2016

- Warehouse key indicators have stabilized in Q4 2015 -

Moscow, 29 January 2016, - According to the latest warehouse and industrial market report from the global real estate advisor, CBRE, 2015 introduced the global revision in current conditions for all market participants. Demand and supply misbalance resulted in vacancy level that is more typical for mature markets. Vacancy level has provoked the substantial decrease in rental rates thus cutting off the market the non-system developers in terms of the efficiency. This is mainly reflected in the volume of speculative development. About 686,000 sq m in total are announced to be completed in 2016, and only half of this is available to the market.

SUPPLY

The total completions for 2015 reached 694,000 sq m, 57% less than in 2014. The only project of 10,000 sq m was delivered in Q4 2015 - a stand-alone project for an end-user. In contrast to 2014, there were no speculative projects delivered in Q4 2015. 686,000 sq m in total are announced to be completed in 2016, and only half of this is available to the market. For example, among the key projects to be opened in 2016 are Leroy Merlin distribution centre (100,000 sq m) in South Gate Industrial Park and Magnit distribution centre (56,000 sq m) in Orudievo.

DEMAND

The share XXL-deals (more than 30,000 sq m) reached almost 50%. Due to attractive commercial terms occupiers were actively consolidating warehouse premises during the year. And this process is not completed yet, and will continue in 2016.

The major occupiers are the retail companies, totaling 51% of the annual demand.

Several major deals were closed with retailors in 2015: Dochki –synochki leased 42,203 sq m of warehouse premises in modern Class A warehouse complex Logopark Bykovo located in Moscow Region, along Novoryazanskiy highway and OBI signed a direct lease agreement for 35,765 sq. m of warehouse premises in a modern Class A+ warehouse complex Logopark-Sever -2 in the North of Moscow Region.

Despite the geopolitical situation, demand share of foreign companies is maintained at the usual level of about 30%.

VACANCY RATE

The vacancy rate is settled at 1 mln. sq m by the end of 2015.

By the end of Q4 2015 vacant premises totaled 1.07 mln sq m, representing 11.2% of the warehouse stock in the Moscow Region. The vacancy increase was insignificant, only 0,27 ppts. 

COMMERCIAL TERMS 

The average rental rent in 2016 is expected to be RUB 4,200/sq m/year, same level as it was in Q4 2015.

Average sale price will stay at RUB 40,000 -45,000 per sq m.

Rental rates were indexed in accordance with the Russian consumer price index, but not more than 10%.

KEY TRENDS OF THE WAREHOUSE AND INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY MARKET FOR 2016:

Demand level will be the key characteristics of the market in 2016. Thus not only its absolute amount, but also its structure will affect the market.

Annual take-up is expected at 1 mln sq m. About a half of it (400,000-500,000 sq m) will represent the growth of the market, while other transactional activity will be represented by optimization of currently occupied space.

We expect the retail companies to continue consolidation of warehouses. Low prices and large variety of market options are still shaping potential for big deals.

Development was under pressure of low rental rates. The construction cost savings and the increase of construction efficiency will continue. This will ease speculative development. Annual completions in 2016 are expected at 600,000-700,000 sq m. 

Vacancy rate will be slightly decreasing throughout 2016, but will stay in the range of 9-10%.

Anton Alyabyev, Director, Industrial & Logistics Agency Services, CBRE in Russia, commented: 

“The 2015 results have demonstrated high business activity, which is definitely a positive signal. During the year the demand was very high, and by the end of the 2015 the take-up totaled 1.2 mln sq m, which was almost equal to historical maximum of 2013. From the market perspective, this situation means that business has an experience of going through the crises effectively. Now the companies are taking advantage of the new market opportunities competently, and are consolidating logistics space with comfortable commercial terms. This trend, set in 2015, will continue in 2016. As a result, the Moscow region take-up in 2016 is expected not less than 1 mln sq m.”