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New delivery in 2016 will return to the level of 2011 – 2012

Moscow, 27 January 2016, - According to CBRE’s latest office market report, take-up (new lease and sale deals) amounted to 870,400 sq m (18% higher than in 2014). This has set the trend for 2016.

Major characteristics of the city’s office market in 2015:

• Take-up (new lease and sale deals) amounted to 870,400 sq m (18% higher than in 2014). 
• Largest share of Class A transactions in the history of the Moscow office market – 43%, previously it has never exceeded 41%. However, Class A volume in absolute terms, 373,400 sq m, is the largest only for the last four years.
• The volume of renewals and renegotiations reached a historic high, 566,000 sq m: companies preferred to fix better commercial terms for the short-term in their existing business centres. However, these types of transactions in such a large volume ended in 2015.
• The volume of new office delivery in 2015 amounted to 721,500 sq m, which is almost twice less than in 2014 and 2015 forecasts at the beginning of 2015 (1.4 mln sq m). The largest Class A office buildings delivered in 2015 were Oruzheiny 41 in the CBD (100,000 sq m), Evolution in Moscow-City (79,000 sq m); and in Class B – Neo Geo at Butlerova Street (110,000 sq m), Sirius Park at Kashirskoe Highway (66,000 sq m), Simonov Plaza at Leninskaya Sloboda Street (49,000 sq m).
• Overall vacancy increased from 16.6% in 2014 to 17.7% in 2015; from 12.8% to 14.8% in Class B and decreased from 28% to 26% in Class A.
• The main trend of 2015 is the final transition of lease rates to Roubles. If in H1 2015 Class B was predominantly characterized by Rouble rates, then in Q4 the trend spread to Class A.

A significant share of the total take-up involved state institutions and companies with government involvement, for example, Moscow Government subsidiaries in OKO, Moscow Region Government structures in Orbita, Transneft in Evolution.

There are 0.6 mln sq m of office projects announced for delivery in 2016, of which 0.32 mln sq m is Class A offices, and 0.28 mln sq m is Class B. Over 30% of the announced volume is expected for commissioning in Moscow-City: IQ-quarter and the Federation Tower East, and the volumes of new delivery will return to the level of 2012.

According to CBRE’s forecast, in 2016 the volume of transactions is expected to remain at the level of 2015, 0.8 mln sq m.

The vacancy rate is expected to stabilise at the level of 16–17% overall, 24–25% in the class A segment, 13–14% in the class B segment.

The main trend of 2015 was the final transition of lease rates to Roubles. The only submarket where landlords still continue to offer the premises in rents, denominated in Dollars, is Prime Class A segment ($800–900 per sq m per year net of OpEx and VAT).

According to our forecast, rental rates denominated in Rubles will at least remain stable during 2016.

Elena Denisova, Director of Office Agency, CBRE in Russia commented: 

“Despite decrease in the volume of new office construction and rental decrease, Moscow office market observed positive changes: demand remained active and take-up exceeded the 2014 results. 

In 2016 among the major trends the conclusion of large new lease transactions cannot be excluded, including continuing demand from state institutions and state owned companies. 

We expect that 2016 will be the last period when the current market opportunities can be secured. 

It is also anticipated that extension and renegotiation deals will not be executed on such large volume in 2016. 

Lease rates denominated in Roubles appear to reach bottom in 2015, however the bottom is not reflected on the asking rates, but rather can be clearly perceived through actually achieved transactions.”