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For the first time since 2008, Russia will cede its leadership in shopping centre completions in Europe

Some 1.1m sq m of new quality shopping centres will move the country to the second place in the European ranking

According to JLL, 334,000 sq m of new quality shopping centres  entered the Russian market in H1 2017, down by one-third from the level in the same period last year. Some 806,200 sq m are announced for delivery in H2 2017, which is also one-third lower YoY. This will bring the total Russia stock above 24m sq m.

With the total 2017 retail volume of 1.14m sq m, Russia will lose its leading position in Europe, which it has retained since 2008. “The leadership will pass to Turkey, with new retail completion estimated at 1.66m sq m. Unlike most countries in Europe, Russia and Turkey have a ‘mall’ market model, with strong growth achieved by the delivery of many large projects. Both countries still have a low saturation with high-quality shopping centres compared to the majority of European countries. There are 163 and 139 sq m of quality retail space per 1,000 inhabitants in Turkey and Russia, respectively, versus the European average of 213 sq m. Poland with 331,000 sq m of new space in 2017 completes the top 3 list. Ukraine occupies the 13th place in this rating with the 72,600 sq m of the expected new retail supply.” – notes Oksana Kopylova, Head of Retail & Warehouse Research, JLL, Russia & CIS.

Shopping centre completion in Europe 

Source: JLL

"Slowing new retail construction in Russia is driven by several overlapping factors. The market fell under pressure due to recession, which depressed the activity of both retailers and developers. Project which construction has begun before the crisis are close to completion or have already entered the market, and the number of newly announced projects is significantly lower. Thus, limited new retail supply is expected in the near future, which will result in a lack of premises for retailer expansions.” – says Ekaterina Zemskaya, Regional Director, Head of Retail Group, JLL, Russia & CIS. – “Slowing shopping centres delivery dynamics can also be linked to the market approaching saturation. Although, there are some white spots in Russia, where high-quality retail does not exist, the primary shortage has been eliminated in most attractive Russian cities for developers and retailers, notably in millionniki."

Among major projects delivered in H1 2017, there are Riviera in Lipetsk (61,000 sq m), Aquarelle in Togliatty (41,000 sq m), the 3rd phase of Chizhov Gallery (25,000 sq m) and TSUM refurbishment in Voronezh (16,000 sq m).

The main shopping centre completions are traditionally expected in cities with population less than 1m inhabitants and will account for 42%  of the total Russia new supply. Key announced schemes include the 2nd phase of Evropa (80,000 sq m) in Kursk, Skazka (30,700 sq m) in Krasnodar, the 2nd phase of Krasnaya ploshchad (27,400 sq m) in Novorossiysk, Solombala Mall (20,300 sq m) in Arkhangelsk and Obnimi (17,000 sq m) in Obninsk.

Moscow and Moscow Region represent 35% of shopping stock announced for delivery in 2017. The main projects here are Vegas Kuntsevo (113,400 sq m), Torgovy Park N1 Zhukovsky (45,700 sq m), Vidnoe Park (45,000 sq m) and Arena Plaza (20,000 sq m).

Approximately 23% of new Russia retail supply will appear in cities with population over 1m inhabitants. Among major 2017 projects are the 2nd phase of Megamag (74,700 sq m) and Park (24,500 sq m) in Rostov-on-Don, Evropeysky (45,000 sq m) in Novosibirsk, Zelyony (23,600 sq m) in Krasnoyarsk, where the city’s first Auchan store will be opened. Meanwhile, the St. Petersburg retail market will see no new shopping centres in 2017.

“We currently observe the emergence of a new development cycle on the retail real estate market. Regional developers continue focusing on smaller cities, marked by a low level of modern retail format penetration and relatively high purchasing power. A particular segment for active development are cities with less than 500,000 inhabitants, which account for a quarter of new shopping centre opening by the end 2017." – notes Polina Zhilkina, National Director, Head of Retail Advisory, JLL, Russia & CIS.

Shopping centre completion dynamics in Russia

Source: JLL