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‘Strong and sustainable’ growth continues in global real estate markets

Chicago, London, Singapore, 06 October, 2015 – Currency effects continue to weigh on the world’s real estate markets but new figures from JLL highlight an upward trend of activity at the local level as the weight of capital maintains its search for a safe haven and higher yielding assets.

   Early indications from JLL’s Q3 data show global real estate investment volumes for the third quarter at US$169 billion. Although this represents a 3 percent decline on the same quarter last year, the first three quarters of 2015 show a 3 percent increase on 2014 at US$492 billion.

   Foreign exchange fluctuations are responsible for the figures coming in lower than expected in some markets this quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, volumes across the board for the first three quarters would be 11 percent higher, using fixed exchange rates, than in 2014.

   “Almost every currency globally is down against the U.S. dollar and because it’s the most widely traded currency in global real estate markets it’s having a major impact on the world’s biggest investment markets of Europe, Japan and Australia when we convert activity into U.S. dollars,” said Arthur de Haast, Head of JLL’s International Capital Group, Arthur de Haast. “Reporting consistently in dollar terms we’d be up year on year to the tune of 11 percent. Given this macro-economic scenario and sustained local activity we are maintaining our full year 2015 forecasts at US$740-760 billion.”

   Europe posted the strongest quarterly growth with volumes reaching US$66 billion – 4 percent up on Q3 2014 – with Germany leading the way. Elsewhere, the U.S. continued to grow and Asia Pacific made something of a comeback despite the recent volatility in China.

   JLL’s Global Capital Markets Research Director, David Green Morgan, added that, “While Q3 numbers are not perhaps as strong as we had anticipated the major markets continue to perform well at the local level. The U.S. is strong, up 18 percent on last year; the UK, France and Germany are leading the charge in EMEA, though France is lagging slightly; and Japan and Australia continue to hold their place as the biggest markets in Asia Pacific although, in U.S. dollar terms, they’re lower year-on-year.”

   “Continued volatility in equity and fixed income markets, with further delays by the Fed, continue the stability and consistent returns that commercial real estate can offer investors. With benchmark indexes in the U.S. and Europe continuing to show double digit total returns we expect capital allocations to continue to increase.” 

Regional breakdown

Americas

   Year to date investments in the Americas continues to show solid growth over 2014 pace, with activity 10 percent ahead of last year at US$229 billion. While the U.S. is 18 percent ahead of 2014, all the other markets across North and Latin America are lower, reflecting the challenges for commodity based economies such as Canada and the emerging markets in much of the rest of the region.

EMEA

   Europe posted the strongest quarterly growth with volumes reaching US$66 billion – 4 percent up on Q3 2014. In local currency terms European markets are almost 25 percent ahead of last year’s Q3 pace and 19 percent ahead over the first three quarters. Germany leads the way as the standout market, posting volumes 20 percent higher year-on-year. Although French and UK volumes are lower at this stage of the year, it’s largely as a result of a strong Q3 2014 and both have robust deal pipelines which should support growth over the final quarter.

Asia Pacific

   While volumes for the third quarter are 19 percent lower than Q3 2014 at US$26 billion, year to date is running only 6 percent behind 2014’s pace at US$82 billion. China, despite all its recent headline grabbing economic and stock market news, is recovering from a weak 2014 with 2015 volumes 40 percent above last year.